Analysis EUR/USD - 12 MAC 0439

EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 12/03/2012 04:39 ) 

Pivot: 1.3125

Our preference: Short positions below 1.3125 with targets @ 1.307 & 1.3045 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.3125 look for further upside with 1.316 & 1.3205 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.3125 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Key levels

1.3205
1.316
1.3125

1.3093 last

1.307
1.3045
1.3



TIPS:


Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.


NEWS:

The euro traded steady to lower against the dollar on Monday, down but stable after posting heavy losses late last week in wake of Greece's successful restructuring with private creditors, although terms under the deal prompted a key international association to declare the move a credit risk, hence a default.

In Asian trading on Monday, EUR/USD hit 1.3120, down 0.02%, up from a session low of 1.3106 and off from a high of 1.3125.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3097, Friday’s low, and resistance at 1.3272, Friday's high.

The euro came under pressure on Friday after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said Greece's recent debt restructuring with private creditors constituted a "credit event."

While most private creditors voluntarily accepted terms of the EUR107 billion restructuring, a few didn't, which prompted Athens to kick in collective action clauses to force holdouts into the deal.

The ISDA's ruling could mean credit-default swaps designed to protect investors against losses on Greek sovereign debt will kick in.

Fitch, meanwhile, cut Greece's rating to "restricted default" over the deal, while Moody's made similar declarations.

Meanwhile the dollar continued to curry favor in global markets after last Friday's strong jobs figures out of the U.S.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported the U.S. economy added a net 227,000 nonfarm payrolls in February, outpacing expectations for a gain of 215,000.

Meanwhile, the government revised January's figures upward to 284,000 from 243,000.

The numbers fueled already growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve will hold off on plans to buy assets from banks, a stimulus measure known as quantitative easing that weakens the dollar in exchange for price stability.

The euro was up against the pound and down against the yen, with EUR/GBP trading up 0.01% at 0.8373 and EUR/JPY down 0.13% at 108.10.

Analysis Crude Oil - 12 MAC 0241

Crude Oil (Apr 12) intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 12/03/2012 02:41 ) 

Pivot: 106.15

Our Preference: LONG positions above 106.15 with 108.15 & 109.2 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 106.15 will call for 105.5 & 104.4.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Trend: ST Bullish; MT Ltd upside

Key levels Comment

109.8** Horizontal resistance
109.2** Fib retracement (78.6%)
108.15*** Fib retracement (61.8%)

106.92 Last

106.15*** Intraday pivot point
105.5** Intraday support
104.4*** Previous low


TIPS

Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.



NEWS:

Crude oil futures softened in Asian trading on Monday, as profit-takers erased the gains the commodity posted on news the labor market in the U.S. economy continued to show signs of improvement.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at USD106.92 a barrel, down 0.44%.

The commodity hit an earlier session high of USD107.52 and a low of USD106.91.

In the U.S. on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy picked up a net 227,000 nonfarm payrolls in February, outpacing expectations for a gain of 215,000.

Meanwhile, the government revised January's figures up to 284,000 from 243,000.

Crude rose on sentiment that a stronger U.S. economy will need more oil and derivatives to grow, although profit-taking had kicked in by the time Monday rolled around in Asian trading.

Many headwinds still face the global economy, including in Europe.

While Greece recently restructured its debts with private creditors, the country did force some holdouts into the deal via collective action clauses.

That move prompted the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to declare the debt swap as a "credit event" that would activate credit-default swaps, which are insurance policies designed to protect investors against losses on Greek sovereign debt.

The market shrugged off reports that China's oil demand may be rising, while a stronger dollar prompted some investors to ignore crude and go long on the U.S. greenback instead.

On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for April delivery were down 0.21% and trading at USD124.99 a barrel, up USD18.07 from its U.S. counterpart.

The gap in price between the two contracts is pushing toward the higher end of a range between a nearly USD20.00 all-time high and a historical spread of USD1.00.

Analysis Gold - 12 MAC 0234

GOLD (Spot) intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 12/03/2012 02:34 ) 

Pivot: 1696.00

Our Preference: LONG positions above 1696 with 1726 & 1741 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1696 will call for 1688 & 1676.5.

Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Trend: ST Ltd upside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

1760* Horizontal resistance
1741* Fib retracement (61.8%)
1726** Fib retracement (50%)

1708 Last

1696*** Intraday pivot point
1688** Fib retracement (50%)
1676.5** Previous low


Tips

Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balanc


NEWS:

Gold prices crept down in Asian trading Monday although steady after dropping last week on reports that U.S. unemployment rates came in better than expected in February, which sent gold's traditional hedge, the dollar, rising.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded down 0.05% at USD1,710.65 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to test technical support at USD1,706.59 a troy ounce and resistance at USD1,721.59.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported the world's largest economy added a net 227,000 nonfarm payrolls in February, outpacing expectations for a gain of 215,000.

Meanwhile, the government revised January's figures up to 284,000 from 243,000.

The news initially sent the dollar soaring on growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve will hold off on any plans to roll out a third round of quantitative easing, which are asset purchases from banks designed to stimulate the economy, with a weaker greenback being the tradeoff for price stability and lower unemployment rates.

Gold later regained its composure and kept it in early Monday trading in Asia as the market sought to put U.S. jobs data behind it and look elsewhere for guidance.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery was up 0.14% and trading at USD34.260 a troy ounce, while copper for May delivery was up 0.21% and trading at USD3.859 a pound.

Analysis Silver - 9 MAC 1339

SILVER (Spot) intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 09/03/2012 13:39 )

Pivot: 33.20

Our Preference: LONG positions above 33.2 with targets @ 34.14 & 34.9.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 33.2 will call for a slide towards 32.8 & 32.45.

Comment: supported by a rising trend line.

Trend: ST Ltd upside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

35.55** Fib retracement (61.8%)
34.9** Horizontal resistance
34.14** Intraday resistance

33.908 Last

33.2** Intraday pivot point
32.8* Intraday support
32.45** Intraday support


TIPS

Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.

A Green Light For Gold

Ben Bernanke and the ECB give the go-ahead for a new bull run in gold

Since the beginning of this year, I’ve been warning investors that gold won’t take off on a sustained rally until we get two things:

1) Normalcy in the markets -- no more scary headlines warning of impending economic doom. These days, when investors think the global financial system is about to come crashing down, they run to cash (i.e., the U.S. dollar). Worse yet, speculators sell their long gold positions to raise cash.

I’ve been saying for months that, until things calm down enough for investors to buy gold for reasons of greed (or long-term protection) rather than outright fear, we won’t see a consistent uptrend for the metal and the mining shares.

2) A consensus on monetary reflation. The market at large needs to understand that the U.S. and Europe are facing massive money printing over the next few years. The mountainous debts that have been piled up can only be dealt with by dramatically expanding the supplies of dollars and euros. There is simply no alternative.

With these two prerequisites achieved, investors will understand that far higher prices are in store for gold, silver and other commodities, along with the associated equities.

The good news: It seems like these pieces are falling into place. The European Central Bank seems determined to provide whatever level of liquidity needed to keep the eurozone afloat. And in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent Congressional testimony, he steadfastly maintained his resolve for loose-money policies through 2014, despite improving employment numbers since the last Fed meeting.

In addition, the Bank of England recently boosted its quantitative easing plan to 325 billion pounds, while the ECB also agreed to take on more risk via looser collateral requirements for its liquidity programs.

It all adds up to more money, and lots of it, dumped onto the world’s markets. While central bankers acknowledge some inflationary risk, they also realize that there is simply no alternative, and these loose-money policies will also have the salutary effect of lifting equity and real estate prices.

These central bankers probably also agree with my contention that, at least initially, this broad-scale monetary reflation in the West won’t have too much of an impact on retail price inflation. The price-depressing effects of low-price imports from the developing world (think Wal-Mart) will serve to dampen prices for consumers.

But these policies will provide rocket fuel to the commodity markets, particularly the metals. And, if we can avoid financial crises, this bull run will also lift the mining shares.

It’s already beginning to happen, and I think it’s very likely that this spring will see a very nice run in the metals.

Emas jatuh ke atas permintaan dunia untuk dolar

Harga emas jatuh dalam perdagangan AS pada hari Jumaat apabila pelabur menjual logam sebagai pertukaran untuk dolar, yang meningkat terima kasih kepada yen lemah dan apabila sentimen bahawa kelonggaran monetari tidak akan muncul semula di Amerika Syarikat pada bila-bila masa tidak lama lagi.

Mengenai bahagian Comex New York Mercantile Exchange, niaga hadapan emas bagi penghantaran April diniagakan pada USD1, 709,15 auns troy, menurun 0.76%.

Niaga hadapan emas mungkin untuk menguji sokongan di USD1, 689,95 1 auns Rabu rendah, dan rintangan troy USD1, 792,15, tinggi hari ini.

Pengerusi Rizab Persekutuan, Ben Bernanke memberitahu Kongres awal minggu ini bahawa ekonomi negara sedang menunjukkan tanda-tanda peningkatan, isyarat pasaran ditafsirkan untuk bermakna peluang pusingan ketiga pelonggaran kuantitatif telah jatuh.

Sejak dilanda kegawatan ekonomi, Fed telah dilancarkan dua pusingan pelonggaran kuantitatif, di mana pihak berkuasa monetari membeli aset seperti sekuriti bersandarkan gadai janji atau bon Perbendaharaan dari bank dengan tujuan mengepam ekonomi dengan mudah tunai, mengurangkan kadar faedah dan merangsang pelaburan dan menyewa.

Sebagai kesan sampingan, dolar menjadi lemah dan emas menguatkan, jadi laporan mencadangkan langkah-langkah rangsangan semakin emas dihantar semakin tidak mungkin jatuh.

Yen lemah, produk melonggarkan di Jepun, didorong lebih banyak permintaan bagi dolar, yang terus mengekalkan harga emas yang rendah.

Masih, penilaian Bernanke ekonomi adalah apa-apa tetapi bercahaya, dan kadar faedah dijangka kekal rendah di Amerika Syarikat bagi tempoh masa yang panjang, yang menyediakan sokongan untuk logam kuning.

Di tempat lain pada penyampaian Comex, perak untuk bulan Mei adalah 2.81% dan perdagangan pada USD34.658 auns troy, sedangkan tembaga untuk penyampaian Mei adalah 0.80% dan perdagangan di USD3.900 paun.

Analysis Crude Oil - 1 MAC 0745

Crude Oil (Apr 12) intraday: the downside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 01/03/2012 07:46 ) 

Pivot: 107.50

Our Preference: SHORT positions below 107.5 with 104.85 & 103.9 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 107.5 will call for a rebound towards 108.75 & 109.35.

Comment: as long as 107.5 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trend: ST Ltd upside; MT Ltd upside

Key levels Comment

109.35** Horizontal resistance

108.75** Horizontal resistance

107.5** Intraday pivot point

106.78 Last

104.85** Intraday support

103.9** Intraday support

102.5*** Intraday support


Tips

Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.


NEWS:

Crude lower on U.S. supply increase

Crude oil futures traded lower Wednesday, after an official report showed a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil supplies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at USD105.75 a barrel during U.S. afternoon trade, giving back 0.77%.

It earlier rose by as much as 0.88% to trade at a session high USD107.44 a barrel.

 U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended February 24, significantly higher than expectations for a 1.2 million barrel increase, per the EIA weekly report.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at a five-month high of 344.9 million barrels as of last week, remaining in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Oil traders also focused on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

In testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, Bernanke said he expects growth this year to continue "at a pace close to or somewhat above the pace" in the second half of 2011 and added that the bank expects to support the economic recovery with its "highly accommodative" monetary policy.

Markets showed a muted reaction to a report showing the U.S. economy grew at a faster rate than initially expected in the final three months of 2011.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported earlier that gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0% during the fourth quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

Oil prices were higher during early European trade after the European Central Bank allotted EUR530 billion in three-year loans to European lenders, after receiving bids from 800 banks, significantly more than in the bank’s first long term refinancing operation of EUR489 billion in three-year loans to 523 banks late last year.

Oil prices initially spiked higher on the news, before retracing gains, as the high uptake on the operation sparked concerns that banks in the region expect liquidity pressures to continue.

Market participants continued to monitor tensions between Iran and the West and a potential disruption to oil supplies from the region.

Growing tensions between Iran and Israel remain a key factor in oil prices. Fears of hostilities between Israel and Iran potentially setting off a conflict  sending oil prices sharply higher weigh in the market.

Israel and the U.S. have previously stated that all options are on the table in ensuring the Islamic Republic does not acquire atomic weapons.

Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, making it the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Saudi Arabia.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for April delivery gave back 0.07% to trade at USD121.48 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD15.72.





Crude rises on surprising U.S. output data


Crude oil futures rose in Asian trading Thursday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected gross domestic product figures out of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at USD107.19 a barrel, up 0.11%.

The commodity hit an earlier session high of USD107.23 and a low of USD106.83.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product rose 3.0% during the fourth quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

A stronger U.S. economy will need more oil and derivatives such as gasoline to operate.

While initial reaction to U.S. growth figures was lukewarm in energy markets, oil managed to rise on reports of heavy turnout at the European Central Bank long-term refinancing operation.

The ECB provided EUR529 billion in three-year loans to European banks after receiving bids from 800 institutions, much more than the central bank's first long-term refinancing operation late last year.

The measure aims to pump up the economy and ease credit conditions.

News of U.S. growth and ECB policy helped offset higher U.S. crude inventories, which grew by 4.2 million barrels in the week to Feb. 24, up for a second straight week.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve Beige Book finds that manufacturing in the U.S. remains steady, which was also bullish for oil.

Tensions between the West and Iran about the latter's nuclear ambitions also kept the price of crude high.

On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for April delivery were up 0.09% and trading at USD123.00 a barrel, up USD15.81 from its U.S. counterpart.

The gap in price between the two contracts is pushing toward the higher end of a range between a nearly USD20.00 all-time high and a historical spread of USD1.00.

Analysis Silver - 1 MAC 0744

SILVER (Spot) intraday: the downside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 01/03/2012 07:44 ) 

Pivot: 35.60

Our Preference: SHORT positions below 35.6 with targets @ 33.7 & 32.7.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 35.6 will open the way to 36.45 & 37.3.

Comment: as long as 35.6 is resistance, likely decline to 33.7.

Trend: ST Bullish; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

37.3**

36.45**

35.6*

34.787 Last

33.7**

32.7**

31**


Tips
Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.

Analysis Gold - 1 MAC 0740

GOLD (Spot) intraday: the downside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances. ( 01/03/2012 07:40 )

Pivot: 1732.00

Our Preference: SHORT positions below 1732 with 1682 & 1657 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1732 will call for a rebound towards 1762 & 1787.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Trend: ST Bullish; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

1787* Intraday resistance

1762** Intraday resistance

1732** Intraday pivot point

1717.35 Last

1682*** Intraday support

1657** Fib retracement (50%)

1640** Intraday support



Tips

Never risk more than 2-3% of the total trading forex account One important difference between a successful and an unsuccessful forex trader in forex Market is that the first is able to survive under unfavorable conditions on the forex market, while an unsuccessful forex trader will blow up his account after 5-10 unprofitable trades in the row.

Even with the same trading system 2 forex traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in money management approach. To introduce you to money management, let's get one fact: losing 50% of total account requires making 100% return from the rest of money just to restore the original balance.


NEWS:

Gold prices rose in early Asian trading Thursday as bargain hunters snapped up the yellow metal after it fell on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that the U.S. central bank has no plans to consider fresh stimulus measures to pump up the economy.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1,714.75 a troy ounce, up 0.20%.   

Gold futures were likely to test support at USD1,689.95 a troy ounce Wednesday's low, and resistance at USD1,792.15, Wednesday's high.

Gold prices rose on news that demand was heavy at the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operation.

The ECB provided EUR529 billion in three-year loans to European banks after receiving bids from 800 institutions, much more than the central bank's first long-term refinancing operation late last year.

Easing measures such as that often send gold rising on sentiment that inflationary pressures could result.

However in the U.S., Bernanke told lawmakers that the Federal Reserve has no immediate plans to roll out a third round of quantitative easing, which are direct asset purchases from banks by the Fed.

The move sent the dollar rising and gold falling, as hints of such measures would mean increases to the U.S. money supply were likely, a situation where gold would have shined.

The metal recovered in Asian trading after prices tested support.

Gold prices are up around 14% in 2012 in part due to sentiment that quantitative easing would be needed to kick-start the U.S. economy out of its sluggishness.

The market, meanwhile, shrugged off better-than-expected gross domestic product rates out of the U.S.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product rose 3.0% during the fourth quarter of last year, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery was up 1.18% and trading at USD35.052 a troy ounce, while copper for May delivery was up 0.19% and trading at USD3.872 a pound.