A Green Light For Gold

Ben Bernanke and the ECB give the go-ahead for a new bull run in gold

Since the beginning of this year, I’ve been warning investors that gold won’t take off on a sustained rally until we get two things:

1) Normalcy in the markets -- no more scary headlines warning of impending economic doom. These days, when investors think the global financial system is about to come crashing down, they run to cash (i.e., the U.S. dollar). Worse yet, speculators sell their long gold positions to raise cash.

I’ve been saying for months that, until things calm down enough for investors to buy gold for reasons of greed (or long-term protection) rather than outright fear, we won’t see a consistent uptrend for the metal and the mining shares.

2) A consensus on monetary reflation. The market at large needs to understand that the U.S. and Europe are facing massive money printing over the next few years. The mountainous debts that have been piled up can only be dealt with by dramatically expanding the supplies of dollars and euros. There is simply no alternative.

With these two prerequisites achieved, investors will understand that far higher prices are in store for gold, silver and other commodities, along with the associated equities.

The good news: It seems like these pieces are falling into place. The European Central Bank seems determined to provide whatever level of liquidity needed to keep the eurozone afloat. And in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent Congressional testimony, he steadfastly maintained his resolve for loose-money policies through 2014, despite improving employment numbers since the last Fed meeting.

In addition, the Bank of England recently boosted its quantitative easing plan to 325 billion pounds, while the ECB also agreed to take on more risk via looser collateral requirements for its liquidity programs.

It all adds up to more money, and lots of it, dumped onto the world’s markets. While central bankers acknowledge some inflationary risk, they also realize that there is simply no alternative, and these loose-money policies will also have the salutary effect of lifting equity and real estate prices.

These central bankers probably also agree with my contention that, at least initially, this broad-scale monetary reflation in the West won’t have too much of an impact on retail price inflation. The price-depressing effects of low-price imports from the developing world (think Wal-Mart) will serve to dampen prices for consumers.

But these policies will provide rocket fuel to the commodity markets, particularly the metals. And, if we can avoid financial crises, this bull run will also lift the mining shares.

It’s already beginning to happen, and I think it’s very likely that this spring will see a very nice run in the metals.

Emas jatuh ke atas permintaan dunia untuk dolar

Harga emas jatuh dalam perdagangan AS pada hari Jumaat apabila pelabur menjual logam sebagai pertukaran untuk dolar, yang meningkat terima kasih kepada yen lemah dan apabila sentimen bahawa kelonggaran monetari tidak akan muncul semula di Amerika Syarikat pada bila-bila masa tidak lama lagi.

Mengenai bahagian Comex New York Mercantile Exchange, niaga hadapan emas bagi penghantaran April diniagakan pada USD1, 709,15 auns troy, menurun 0.76%.

Niaga hadapan emas mungkin untuk menguji sokongan di USD1, 689,95 1 auns Rabu rendah, dan rintangan troy USD1, 792,15, tinggi hari ini.

Pengerusi Rizab Persekutuan, Ben Bernanke memberitahu Kongres awal minggu ini bahawa ekonomi negara sedang menunjukkan tanda-tanda peningkatan, isyarat pasaran ditafsirkan untuk bermakna peluang pusingan ketiga pelonggaran kuantitatif telah jatuh.

Sejak dilanda kegawatan ekonomi, Fed telah dilancarkan dua pusingan pelonggaran kuantitatif, di mana pihak berkuasa monetari membeli aset seperti sekuriti bersandarkan gadai janji atau bon Perbendaharaan dari bank dengan tujuan mengepam ekonomi dengan mudah tunai, mengurangkan kadar faedah dan merangsang pelaburan dan menyewa.

Sebagai kesan sampingan, dolar menjadi lemah dan emas menguatkan, jadi laporan mencadangkan langkah-langkah rangsangan semakin emas dihantar semakin tidak mungkin jatuh.

Yen lemah, produk melonggarkan di Jepun, didorong lebih banyak permintaan bagi dolar, yang terus mengekalkan harga emas yang rendah.

Masih, penilaian Bernanke ekonomi adalah apa-apa tetapi bercahaya, dan kadar faedah dijangka kekal rendah di Amerika Syarikat bagi tempoh masa yang panjang, yang menyediakan sokongan untuk logam kuning.

Di tempat lain pada penyampaian Comex, perak untuk bulan Mei adalah 2.81% dan perdagangan pada USD34.658 auns troy, sedangkan tembaga untuk penyampaian Mei adalah 0.80% dan perdagangan di USD3.900 paun.

U.S. dollar lower on strong euro zone numbers, ECB support

The U.S. dollar traded lower against its major counterparts Friday, as stronger than expected German business confidence figures and European Central Bank support fuelled euro zone confidence.

During U.S. morning trade, the dollar was lower against the euro, with EUR/USD rising 0.28% to hit 1.3411.

The ECB may be tapped next week for EUR470 billion in three year funds for distribution on February 29. This is nearly the same amount that was provided in December, according to a Bloomberg survey.

This infusion of cash is expected to prolong the rally in the bond markets and will be used primarily to support the Italian and Spanish bond markets.

Euro zone inflation is in check and no floor exists under the 1% interest rate, ECB council member Erkki Liikanen told CNBC, calming fears of upside risk in the region.

Yesterday, the euro found strength when German research institute Ifo said its Business Climate Index rose to109.6 in February from a reading of 108.3 the previous month, surpassing expectations for an increase to 108.8, increasing hopes that the euro zone’s largest economy is on the road to recovery.

The greenback was also lower against the pound, with  GBP/USD adding 0.48% to hit 1.5820.

The pound found support after the Confederation of British Industry reported  that U.K. factory orders rebounded to hit a six-month high in February, rising by 13 points to minus 3.0, from a reading of minus 16 in January.

The greenback was higher against yen but  lower against the Swiss franc, with  USD/JPY gaining 0.65% to hit 80.53  and  USD/CHF giving back 0.31% to hit 0.8988.

Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said earlier that he wants to have one-on-one talks with the Bank of Japan governor more frequently and to boost cooperation with the central bank.

The comments came after the BoJ’s decision last week to increase the size of its asset-purchase program to JPY30 trillion, sending the yen broadly lower.

In addition, the greenback was higher against its Canadian, Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with  USD/CAD retreating 0.20% to hit 0.9993, AUD/USD  falling 0.06% to hit 1.0711 and  NZD/USD slipping 0.01% to hit 0.8364.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.12% to hit 78.58.

In the U.S., a report by the Department of Labor showed that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending February 18 held steady at 351,000, missing expectations for an increase of 3,000 to 354,000.

Jobless claims have remained below 400,000, a level historically associated with an improving labor market, in 15 of the past 17 weeks.

Comex Gold Weaker On Corrective, Profit-Taking Pullback

Comex April gold futures prices are trading modestly lower in early U.S. dealings Friday. The market is seeing some profit taking and a downside technical correction following recent solid gains that pushed the yellow metal to a three-month high this week. Losses in gold are being limited by the key “outside markets” being in a bullish daily posture for the precious metals Friday, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil prices are firmer. April gold last traded down $8.10 at $1,778.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.50 an ounce at $1,776.25.  March Comex silver last traded down $0.286 at $35.27 an ounce.

The precious metals markets have had a very good week and profit-taking pullbacks heading into the weekend are not surprising, nor are they unhealthy from a technical perspective, given the recent solid price gains.

Gold and silver have seen stronger demand this week from the present stare-down between allies Israel and the U.S, and Iran. Increasing focus in the media on the potential for Israel or U.S. military action against Iran has prompted increase investor anxiety in the market place. That’s bullish for safe-haven gold, and to a lesser degree bullish for silver. The rising tensions between Israel and the West, and Iran, are and likely will remain a major bullish fundamental factor for the gold market.

The Mid-East tensions have pushed the European Union sovereign debt crisis to the back burner this week, but for how long, many wonder. The Euro currency pushed to a fresh multi-week high overnight amid ideas the EU debt crisis has stabilized.

The U.S. dollar index is lower again Friday morning as the greenback bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum this week. The dollar index is poised to produce a technically bearish weekly low close on Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are trading slightly higher after hitting a 9.5-month high on Thursday. The recent rally in crude oil prices is a major bullish factor for the precious metals. Crude oil and the U.S. dollar index will remain the two key “outside markets” that will generally have at least some daily influence on gold and silver price moves.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and new residential home sales.

The London A.M. gold fixing was $1,778.50 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,777.00.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical momentum this week by pushing prices to a three-month high. Gold bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the November high of $1,808.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $1,706.70. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,784.40 and then at this week’s high of $1,789.50. First support is seen at $1,765.90 and then at Wednesday’s low of $1,750.70.

March silver futures hit a fresh five-month high overnight before backing off  a bit. Silver bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum this week. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $37.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $32.64. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $35.72 and then at $36.00. Next support is seen at $35.00 and then at $34.52.

Positive German economic data lead to boom in the EUR

The euro again yesterday to make up some of its recent losses, as positive German economic data ensured that investors in European trade in riskier assets turned. The EUR / USD pair rose to 1.3340, before the afternoon was a downward correction. Today, the data should provide the U.S. sales of new buildings to house weekly closing down for volatility. An increase in home sales is expected to lead to gains in the USD to other safe-haven currencies.
USD - claims for unemployment benefits point to continued growth in the U.S. labor market
The U.S. dollar posted slight gains yesterday on several of its major currency rivals, as the positive data on unemployment benefit claims to continued growth in the U.S. labor market hindeuteten. Although the notification of the data, the USD / JPY as well as the USD / CAD pair recorded upward movement, led earlier in the day positive economic data from the euro zone to the fact that the dollar against the euro and British pound sterling experienced a downturn. The EUR / USD pair was the biggest part of the day at or above the value of 1.3300 while the GBP / USD pair recovered from the declining trend of the previous day and increased up to 1.5730.
End of the week, traders should pay attention to the data sent to the U.S. sales of domestic buildings, which are published at 15:00 GMT clock. In addition to the labor market statistics of the real estate market is considered one of the priority indicators for the economic health of the U.S.. Increases in the previous month's data are likely to lead to the USD may record its major currency rivals an increase. That being said, could positive notices from the euro zone cause investors to turn to back riskier assets, which could lead to a decline in the dollar.
A short outlook for the coming week shows that traders with announcements of a number of important U.S. economic indicators can be expected. Particular attention should be paid on Tuesday the report on consumer confidence and apply on Wednesday the preliminary gross domestic product. If even one of the indicators are above expectations, the dollar is likely recorded corresponding gains.
EUR - The EUR could not hold the gains of yesterday's trading permanently
A better than expected German Ifo business climate index has led to the start of yesterday's trading to a brief rise of the euro. The EUR / USD pair was increased compared to the previous evening by over 100 pips and rose to 1.3340. Apart from this, led to concerns that the euro zone could fall again this year into a recession, means that the single currency had to leave a day later from earlier gains. The EUR / USD pair traded most of the day below the level of 1.3300, while EUR / CHF pair during European trading down to 1.2044 sank.
Today, the movements of the EUR should likely be determined by notices from the euro zone. Negative news regarding the economic recovery in the euro zone could cause investors to turn away from riskier assets. Consequently, the euro could increase its declining trend. On the other hand, the data should be the U.S. Home Sales on the expected 316 000 new buildings, the euro could benefit from an upswing and recorded against the USD.
JPY - The yen recorded short-term boost to the USD
The Japanese yen saw gains against the USD short-term, after he had fallen the day before on a 7-month low. The downward movement of the USD / JPY pair was profit-taking on the part attributed to investors who saw the pair as overbought. According to most analysts expected a long-term upward trend of this pair will be possible only if the United States increased its key interest rate. The USD / JPY pair fell in European trading up to 80.03 before settling back to the recovered value of 80.25.
End of the week should Yen traders pay attention to the data sent to the U.S. sales of domestic buildings, which are published at 15:00 GMT clock. Analysts predict that the data are higher than those of the previous month. If this is true, should the USD recorded further gains against the yen. However, should the number be less than the expected 316 000, the yen could make up some of its losses.
Crude Oil - Crude oil inventories rise in U.S. crude oil prices led to a decline in
Crude oil prices fell yesterday for the first time in six days, as hinted at an increase of U.S. crude oil inventories to a decline in demand. However, the crude oil price falls below the value of $ 106 per barrel fell, he was given the ongoing tensions between Iran and the West is still relatively high. The raw materials fell in European trading to $ 105.60 per barrel on.
Today the price of crude oil is expected to be re-determined to a large extent by the conflict with Iran. Evidence that Iran will limit oil exports are likely to continue to push the price of crude oil up before the markets close for the weekend. If, however, be released from the Euro zone negative statements about the economic recovery, this could cause a downturn in crude oil prices.

Comprehend the power of leverage.

Sterling Smith: Manage Risk And Be Careful About Too Much Leverage

Sterling Smith:  

“Understanding risk and containing risk is the most important thing you can do...."

Sterling Smith has found that successful trading involves far more than picking winning positions. Traders also need an exit strategy, whether they win or lose, and must comprehend the power of leverage.

Smith is a commodity trading adviser and market analyst for Country Hedging, based in Minnesota, after previously working at a number of futures firms in Chicago. He follows a wide range of markets, including agricultural commodities and metals. Over the years, he has worked with retail, institutional and commercial clients and also did a stint as a risk manager for a futures brokerage.

“Understanding risk and containing risk is the most important thing you can do, whether you are an industrial concern that has commodity price risk, if you’re a farmer or you are a speculator,” Smith said. “If you do not know where you are going to get out of a trade when it fails, and if you don’t have a plan in place, you will fail. It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when.

“For example, if you have somebody buying gold all of the time right now and have no plan about when they are getting out, as long as the market stays bullish, they’re fine. But if they don’t have a plan in place for when the tide turns, that’s usually when I see disaster strike.”

He has seen many an instance in which traders held onto a position too long. One way to avoid this is the use of buy or sell stops, which are orders activated when prices hit to certain chart points.

Traders can even use stops to make sure they hang onto profits. Say they bought gold futures and the market rises. Smith would lift the original stop so that if it gets activated on a market pullback, a trader would be kicked out of a position while still ahead. “Never, ever, ever let a winning trade become a loser,” Smith said.

Stops are also used as protection in case a market moves against a trader. Smith favors putting them just above or below widely recognized chart support and resistance to avoid getting kicked out prematurely. For instance, suppose there is a clear support level for gold. The market could fall there but then bounce again. So Smith might put his stop slightly below so he would still be in the market if the support holds.

“You want to get stopped out because you were wrong and not get stopped out because of static,” he said.

Smith warns against trying to hold onto a losing trade for too long so that the losses just pile up. His experience has been that successful trades usually become a winner within the first two or three days.  “If a trade isn’t working pretty well right from the get-go, you’re usually better off getting out.”

He has seen traders get in trouble when they had five winners but one “absolute stinker.” The traders were willing to exit the winners to book a profit, but held the loser hoping to recapture their loss, only to end up farther in the red.

“At that point, you’re not in control. The market is in control,” Smith said. “You’re not trading any more. You’re hoping.”

Another key to risk management, he said, is thinking ahead about how much of a trading account to put in any one position—whether it be a fixed dollar amount or a percentage of an account.

‘The Most Killing Mistake Is Misusing Margin’

Futures traders can get in trouble by not grasping the full power of leverage. They put up money for a “margin,” or collateral, but this is a small percentage of the total value of a contract. Thus, they can lose their entire investment even when the price of a commodity moves by only a small percentage.

“The most killing mistake is misusing margin,” Smith said.

He gave an example: a $100,000 account is enough for margins on 30 soybean contracts at 5,000 bushels each which, as of this interview, was worth $1.89 million.  If a trader bought 30 contracts and the market moved against him by 60 cents, forcing him out, his account would be whacked to $10,000.

“It (leverage) is your friend when things work well,” Smith said. “But it is an equal enemy when you’re wrong.”

Smith feels comfortable being involved with a wide range of markets since he often works 10-hour days. But for somebody with only an hour or two, he recommends following just one or two markets, preferably “simple” ones. By this, he means markets less likely to make sudden major shifts. One might be sugar, which has production around the world, meaning less chance of abrupt changes in global supply/demand fundamentals. By contrast, such a large portion of cocoa production is concentrated in one nation—the Ivory Coast—that a political insurgency could mean a sudden shift in supply and thus prices.

Among the metals, he views gold as one of the simpler markets for newcomers due to the multiple sizes of contracts to control risk, as well as limited volatility. “Gold, when it’s bullish, is bullish and goes up rather nicely.  You simply have to be aware of the one problem—when it turns the corner, it’s going to turn hard and be severe for two or three days. By simply keeping a stop around and being prepared…it becomes a much friendlier market. It’s a comparably easy market to day trade as well, in my opinion.”

He considers silver one of the more challenging commodities for trading (in which somebody takes a futures position for a limited time period of say two weeks, as opposed to somebody planning to buy and hold a physical product for years.) “The volatility is so exaggerated….A winner could very quickly become a loser.”

Smith looks at both fundamentals (such as supply/demand and news events) and technical-chart analysis when making trading decisions.

However, he emphasized the importance of being truly “objective” when studying fundamentals. Too often, he said, traders end up surfing the Internet only to support ideas they might already have. “That is not being objective. That is trying to build a case for yourself.”

As for chart analysis, Smith looks for areas of “congestion” that suggest a market might be about to change direction. For instance, suppose a market puts in a major low, recovers and falls again…but the new low is above the prior major low.

“That’s a good sign of a market beginning to make a bottom,” Smith said. “Or, if you find a spot where the market is clearly having trouble, that’s a good area to look for resistance.”

He also pays attention to the positioning of small speculators in weekly positioning data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These would be the “non-reportable” positions in the so-called legacy reports. These accounts are often viewed as late-comers to the party by futures veterans since by the time these accounts collectively build a large net long or short position, markets may be getting ready to turn. An exception to this rule of thumb, Smith added, might be gold since small speculators tend to be always long.

He is also cautious about any commodity in which such a large move has occurred that regional newspapers are running stories.  Say they pick up a story on soaring coffee prices. There’s a good chance that much of the bullishness is already factored into the market.

“When the move has become so much that the mainstream media is covering, it’s usually a sign that the futures market is probably exhausting itself,” Smith said.

Original article: http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120203AS_Smith.html

Gold futures surge to six-week high

27 Jan, 2012, 03.06AM IST, Bloomberg 
NEW YORK: Gold futures surged to a six-week high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said it expects "exceptionally low" interest rates through at least late 2014. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced.

Fed Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference after the central bank's statement that the option of further large-scale bond purchases is still "on the table."

Gold has jumped 28% in the past 12 months, partly as record-low rates boosted the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation.

"We saw an immediate reaction in gold" after the Fed's announcement, Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New York-based Pension Partners, said in a telephone interview. "People are betting that at some point the economy will face inflationary pressures because of the low interest rate."

Gold futures for April delivery climbed 2.1% to close at $1,703 an ounce at 1:44 pm on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain since January 3.

In electronic trading after the settlement, the metal reached $1,716.10, the highest for a most-active contract since December 12. The price topped the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a chart signal that some analysts perceive as bullish. The metal closed above the 200-day moving average on January 10.

Silver futures for March delivery in New York jumped 3.6% to close at $33.121 an ounce. In electronic trading, the price reached $33.40, the highest since December 2. This month, silver has surged 19%, and gold has gained 8.7%.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for April delivery advanced 1.8% to $1,579.60 an ounce. Palladium futures for March delivery climbed 1.9% to $693.35 an ounce.

Stok Eropah melanjutkan keuntungan bergerak Fed; Dax melompat 1,48%

2012-01-26
Pasaran saham Eropah yang diberi keuntungan pada hari Khamis, selepas Rizab Persekutuan berkata, ia adalah mungkin untuk mengekalkan kadar faedah hampir sifar sehingga sekurang-kurangnya lewat 2014 dan melaksanakan langkah-langkah rangsangan selanjutnya.
Semasa dagangan petang Eropah, STOXX Euro 50 melonjak 1,34%, Perancis CAC 40 melonjak 1,13%, manakala Jerman Dax 30 melonjak 1,48%.
Pada akhir mesyuarat penetapan kadar, Fed berkata keadaan ekonomi akan kemungkinan "waran tahap yang sangat rendah bagi kadar dana persekutuan sekurang-kurangnya melalui 2014 lewat." Bank pusat itu sebelum ini telah berjanji untuk mengekalkan kadar faedah hampir kepada sifar sehingga pertengahan tahun 2013 .
Pengerusi Fed Ben Bernanke berkata bahawa penggubal dasar "bersedia untuk menyediakan tempat tinggal lagi monetari" dan menambah bahawa membeli bon adalah "pilihan yang pastinya di atas meja," menunjukkan bahawa bank boleh memulakan pusingan ketiga pelonggaran kuantitatif.
Di tempat lain, perbincangan mengenai urus niaga swap hutang antara hutang Greece diikat dan pemiutang swasta untuk menyambung semula di Athens di kemudian hari.
Saham kewangan kekal lebih tinggi sebagai saham dalam pemberi pinjaman Perancis BNP Paribas dan Societe générale naik 1,28% dan 0,95%, manakala Jerman, Deutsche Bank dan Commerzbank melonjak 1,54% dan 1.42% masing-masing.
Pemberi pinjaman Persisian juga lebih tinggi dengan Itali Unicredit dan Intesa Sanpaolo melonjak 2.11% dan 2.21%, manakala saham-saham di Sepanyol BBVA dan Banco Santander meningkat 2,07% dan 2.01%.
Di tempat lain, Technip mendapat 0.57% selepas syarikat perkhidmatan minyak Perancis memenangi kontrak bernilai lebih daripada EUR900 juta euro dari Lukoil Neftochim Burgas bagi kejuruteraan, pemerolehan dan pembinaan kompleks hydrocracking di Burgas, Bulgaria.
Di London, komoditi berat FTSE 100 naik 1.12%, dirangsang oleh keuntungan yang kukuh dalam saham-saham Perlombongan.
Rio Tinto dan Bhp Billiton dilanjutkan kenaikan terdahulu, dengan saham melambung tinggi 4,49% dan 3.42%, manakala pengeluar tembaga Xstrata dan Kazakhmys meroket 4,70% dan 6,87% masing-masing.
Sementara itu, Petropavlovsk, yang lombong emas dan bijih besi di Rusia, berhimpun 9,83% selepas menetapkan sasaran pengeluaran 680,000 auns 2012. Pengeluaran pada tahun 2011 meningkat 24% kepada 630.100 auns, kata syarikat itu dalam satu kenyataan.
Pemberi pinjaman UK juga dengan ketara lebih tinggi dengan Lloyds Banking melambung tinggi 5,29% dan Bank Diraja Scotland memanjat 4,11%, manakala Barclays dan HSBC Holdings menambah 3,65% dan 0,63%.
Di Amerika Syarikat, pasaran ekuiti menunjukkan terbuka yang lebih tinggi. Dow Jones Industrial Average niaga hadapan menunjuk ke arah peningkatan 0,36%, S & P 500 niaga hadapan menandakan peningkatan sebanyak 0.33%, manakala Nasdaq 100 niaga hadapan menunjukkan keuntungan 0.19%.
Juga Tuesday, laporan menunjukkan bahawa iklim pengguna Jerman bertambah baik tidak disangka-sangka pada bulan Januari.
Kemudian hari, Amerika Syarikat adalah untuk melepaskan data rasmi pada awal tuntutan pengangguran serta laporan mengenai pesanan barangan tahan lama.